To Push for Stardom or Not: A Rookie’s Dilemma in the Tamil Movie Industry

Vol 22, No 3; Article by Trichy V Krishnan and A M Sakkthivel; September 2010

A movie is a multi-dimensional product and one of the important factors determining the success of a movie in the vibrant Indian Tamil movie industry is the lead actor. While employing an established actor will enhance the probability of success, producers are willing to try new entrants because they are inexpensive and readily available. However, while actors achieved stardom in the past by acting in many successful movies over time, there is a trend among rookies with one or two successes to push for stardom aggressively, creating a new set of dynamics in the industry.

In this paper, we offer a rationale why it makes sense for a successful rookie to try to get on a fast track even though he runs the risk of failure or being replaced with a new entrant. We build a decision-theory based analytical model to study this interesting interaction using data collected from the industry. Our analysis shows that when the probability of success of a successful rookie’s movies is assessed to be neither too high nor too low, the rookie would push himself to become a star immediately. A very low probability would discourage him because his failure would doom him forever, and a high probability would encourage him to stay the course, prove himself and ensure higher returns in the long run. The rookie is also more likely to project himself as a star if the producer invests in a movie that pays attention to all the attributes of the movie, rather than just the lead actor. Thirdly, if the industry is such that the me-too stars in the long run cannot make more than a small percentage of what a star makes, the successful rookie would try to become a star sooner because by waiting, his chances of good returns from a me-too star status are not very high.