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The Capital Investment Economics of Mobile Wireless

Volume 14, Number 2 Article by Hemant Kumar Sabat September, 2002

The Capital Investment Economics of Mobile Wireless :

A series of technological leaps in mobile wireless devices, networks, and applications is setting the stage today for mobile wireless to transform itself from mobile voice to the ultimate communication medium by ushering in radical new applications and business models. However, to capitalise on the opportunity, stakeholders investing in mobile wireless need to assess a wide range of issues. The impact of a mobile wireless network operator’s capital investments on the industry is best understood by looking at the fundamental business drivers, the value propositions, the value chain, the components of capital investments, and the impact on operator’s cash flows along the evolutionary phases of the industry. Mobile wireless subscribers want convenient, secure, reliable and personalised service – all at a value-based price. The industry’s value chain has evolved through three chronological phases, the birth, the land-grab, and the mobile wireless, to enable these value propositions.

Hemant Sabat studies and analyses capital investment patterns over the last ten years of more than 300 wireless network operators operating across the world, and wireless technology adoption patterns in over 100 countries, to derive the technology investment life cycle and the subscriber penetration life cycle. The technological investment life cycle, which maps out three progressive stages (footprint acquisition, network expansion and network sustenance), can help the players understand the rationale behind industry dynamics and the current slowdown. Orienting their businesses around technology lifespans, they can plan their investments, including R&D investments for future technological advancements. At the macro-economic level, measures to counter minor economic downturns may help avoid an industry-specific slowdown. The cycle may be extended to understand the impact of regional disparities in technology investments, the effect of cumulative technology investments, and the effects of delayed/early technology investment. Typically, subscriber growth in a region follows the proposed subscriber penetration life cycle, which can help operators differentiate between emerging and mature markets and facilitating near-term network planning. These life cycles explain the current industry dynamics and help manage uncertainties in the value chain, which may lead to the emergence of a stable mobile wireless industry.

Reprint No 02302